Author Topic: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation  (Read 5281 times)

Offline John123

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #60 on: April 17, 2020, 02:47:58 PM »
13,729 deaths in the UK so far with one scientist predicting we could see 40,000 die during this wave alone.

The joys of living in an overcrowded island nation.

Offline Mads Barnkob

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #61 on: April 21, 2020, 10:09:11 AM »
In Denmark the curve is as flat as it can possible get. We have seen a huge drop in deaths from normal influenza and even sexually transferred diseases are dropping like a stone due to social distancing. It has come to a point where we have fewer deaths in 2020 as we had in 2019. There is no proof of a over-deadliness due to covid-19, can exceed the statistical uncertainty.

Dead per 1.000.000 population: https://www.datawrapper.de/_/qvFdX/



I had time to walk through all my black boxes and if you have 20 minutes to waste... ;)

« Last Edit: April 21, 2020, 10:46:26 AM by Mads Barnkob »
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Offline klugesmith

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #62 on: April 21, 2020, 08:06:17 PM »
At the end of last week, I joined the ranks of the 0.7% of Californians who have been tested for Covid,
and the 89% of testees whose results were negative (“virus not detected”).
 
Not due to any cough, fever, congestion, loss of smell, or known contact with anyone known to have contacted any Covid patient.
 
Got referred for testing after a long-scheduled visit with a new dermatologist, in a week that “Covid Toe” was getting to be talked about in medical circles and the news.   A visit by video (!), with some uploaded still pictures of a minor finger ailment.
 
Next thing you know, I was directed to report for drive-through testing.  Only contact with clinical staff was through open window on driver’s side of my car.  Had to lower my mask an inch so they could put an awfully long swab all the way up my nose.

Offline Hydron

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #63 on: April 21, 2020, 11:41:41 PM »
I took my partner in for a test a few weeks back in NZ - she'd gotten a new cough (most likely allergies) and that plus recent international travel made them request a test. Can confirm that the swab looks long enough to tickle your brain!

Came back negative in a bit over a day's time. She was in a slightly less exclusive group than you - over 98% of tests have been negative in NZ (covering at least ~1.5% of population, hard to tell exactly without knowing the number of re-tests).

Since her test they've widened the testing criteria to "any new respiratory symptoms/fever" or "you went to a supermarket where we're doing random population testing" - no "COVID Toe" needed! (I hadn't heard of such a thing before your post).

Unfortunately we've just arrived back in the UK, where the criteria seems to be "severely ill in hospital" - a number of colleagues have had it and not even been close to being tested, so the current UK prevalence numbers are a fantasy at best - the tests they are doing are coming back with a positive rate over 1/3.

Offline Mads Barnkob

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #64 on: April 22, 2020, 11:26:23 PM »
I start at work again tomorrow, first day back at my desk in 47 days. I was home sick just before the isolation started, so have an extra 5 days to add to it. It is no longer required to work 100% from home, but still to be planned to do so if possible. If physical presence is needed and you can do the job within the guidelines set by our "CDC", then we can do it.
 
I have turned my whole workshop around, been in every drawer, box, crate, container, shelf and cupboard. I sorted a lot of stuff, re-found a lot of things and threw nothing out!

I guess this video is the culmination of being home for 7 weeks.

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Offline John123

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #65 on: April 23, 2020, 07:29:17 PM »
You could walk around town and woo fair maidens with that suit covered in magnets!

Offline Uspring

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #66 on: April 23, 2020, 08:21:48 PM »
Ahhh, so sad. The proud knight, Mads of the Barnkobs, is going back into slavery after 47 days.

Thank you for the entertainment in dreary days.

Offline klugesmith

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #67 on: July 31, 2020, 04:35:43 PM »
As we all know, USA continues to lead the world in cultivation of coronaviruses.  Be interesting to hear outside views about that.

A local electronics flea market (hamfest / swap meet) just cancelled the August event, 6th in a row in this 7 month season.
So I'm still overwhelmed by things that deserve to be given away (?) instead of landfill / recycling / e-waste.

My regular workplace has been partly opened up for a couple months, with very conservative rules for those selected to go in.  Wear face-covering mask while in building, even when alone in room, except while eating or drinking (which must be done alone).  Wash hands frequently. Avoid spending time close to others, except where it's necessary to get a job done.   Thursday evening I had to step out of a laboratory while experimental disinfecting robot (made in Denmark?) patrolled the room.  It's like a miniature Zamboni machine.

Am hoping to get one of the color-changing paper dots that they use to monitor UVC exposure.  And learn how many mJ/cm^2 they say is enough.  The run time per battery charge is limited, of course, almost completely by power to the lamps.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2020, 04:42:40 PM by klugesmith »

Offline Uspring

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #68 on: August 02, 2020, 07:14:17 PM »
Quote
As we all know, USA continues to lead the world in cultivation of coronaviruses.  Be interesting to hear outside views about that.
A bait, ain't it?
I think the US infection rates are way too high to be good for the country. But I'm stating the obvious and I don't want to get into politics here. Some observations:

Germany, the country I live in, has been fortunate. In march, when infections began to rise seriously here, videos and pictures from Northern Italy went viral, showing completely exhausted crying nurses, desperate doctors and military convois carrying loads of coffins during the night. Italy is not far from here and a popular place to visit for holidays. People got scared and behaviour changed significantly even before official measures were taken.
Apparently the somewhat similar situation in New York didn't provide as much of a shock to the American people. But curves seem to flatten in the US now and reproduction numbers drop below 1 in many states.
Hereabouts the infection rates are low now, most measures relaxed, Italy has been forgotten and the rates are increasing again. That is similar in many other European countries. Californians are doing much better now than Germans, their reproduction number is around 0.86, while Germanys is at 1.2.

I've played around with all sorts of pandemics calculations, but i found their predictive value limited, since people tend to adjust their behaviour according to what happens around them. That often limits runaway scenarios such as exponential growth.
A simple rule, which seems to hold is, that when the newly infected rate decreases, behaviour is relaxed until it increases again. Different countries will stabilize their infection rates at differing levels. Most of them.

An interesting consequence of constant infection rates is the appearance of chains of infections, i.e. an infected person will on the average infect exactly one other one. That will continue on and on until the pandemic ends. Since on the average it takes 4 days from being infected to passing the infection on to the next one, the single person at the start of the chain will have caused infections in 50 others in the course of 200 days, i.e. ~1/2 year.
In Germany we have a mortality estimated around 1% for covid, so for a chain of 50 infected, there is a 50% chance that there will be a dead one after you within the next half year, which could have been avoided, if you hadn't been infected.
That is, of course, a statement about averages and need not hold for single individuals.

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Re: Corona lockdown thread, tell about your situation
« Reply #68 on: August 02, 2020, 07:14:17 PM »

 


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